The automobile is an integral part of the world economy. It is a large scale operation demanding an enormous amount of capital for a successful operation. Each new design takes tens of thousands of man-hours. It reflects the collective design ideas of dozens or even hundreds of individual engineers and designers all geared toward one goal: anticipating the desires of the consumer. Thus it is an excellent barometer of social mood.

Of course, by the nature of design there is a lot of subjectivity when it comes to developing a clear set of criteria for analysis. Sure, such things as vehicle weight and wheelbase are easy to quantify, but how do we measure total curvature? How can we assess the relative importance of a particular design theme? Should a tailfin be considered more indicative of bullish times than a jet shaped exhaust?

Adding to the difficulty is the fact that the automobile is still a young invention, having gained real stature as a practical means of conveyance only about 100 years ago. Such things as a declining weight/power ratio - in itself a seemingly bullish development - could be the inevitable result of improving technology, especially in the earlier phases when people were still known to have to jump out of the vehicle on mountain passes in order to keep it from moving backwards! Due to the youth of the technology we donʼt have too many design phases upon which to base our analysis.

Also the attitude toward automotive design shifted over the years. From a largely functionalist endeavor practiced by engineers, it gradually switched to the expressive vocation practiced by art school graduates. Engineering was still important, and some customers continued to feel it was the most crucial factor when choosing an automobile. But the new profession of automotive designer added a new and important dimension to the way customers evaluated their cars. This poses problems with, say, comparing the design of a recession year car of 1921 to one designed in the recession year of 1982. In 1921 there simply was no concept of styling as it is known today so merely because we see a lot of flat surfaces (a bear market trait) doesnʼt really bolster our analysis, as essentially the same surfaces were extant on models in the halcyon year of 1928.

General principles

Here are some general principles which tend to hold true, accepting of course that it is a fairly subjective analysis without too many historical cases:

Times of falling stock prices and poor economic performance are associated with a desire to conserve resources. Cars will usually have more economical, smaller engines which burn less fuel. Cars themselves will tend to be smaller.

Cars will have fewer accessories like power steering and seats. Such extras add to up-front costs, pack on weight, and use more power in many cases. Consumers may also assume they will “just add something else that can go wrong”, implicitly focusing on the higher repair costs rather than the benefits which might be accrued by having the extra convenience item.

Depressed times lead to designs that tend to be more conservative. Such conservatism is reflected in several ways. First, designs will tend to have fewer extraneous surfaces and curvature which might add weight and manufacturing complexity. As well, designs tend not to be as innovative.